How and why russia is fixing syrias devastated economy. From the start of russian military involvement in syria until january 11, 2016, according to ihs janes 360, the amount of territory under the syrian governments control grew by just 1. Regime change in syria is still at least officially u. Syria ordered to russia more modern weapons that would further improve its combat capabilities. Optimistically, some feel that the election of donald trump may diminish the us security threat, offer russia new opportunities in the region, and thus allow russia to prioritize other interests than it has been. Jan 17, 2017 the us could begin by limiting the damage of the syrian conflict to its wider regional stability and counterterrorism goals. Its investments in the middle east have paid off handsomely. During all the ups and downs in the present crises engulfing middle east, one thing has remained the same the unflinching support of russia for its longtime ally syrias bashar.
History, the civil war and peace prospects article pdf available january 2018 with 12,268 reads. The russian naval facility in tartus, syria, was established during the cold war under a 1971 agreement with syria. In this regard, russia s decision to stand with its ally is especially important. Israel seeks to minimize iranian and russian influence in syria, block the transfer of advanced weapons to hezbollah, prevent syria from posing a credible military threat to israel or permitting iran to do so, undermine the legitimacy of syrias claims to the golan heights, and prevent sunni militants from establishing infrastructure or. Domestically, it is increasingly turning away from democratic principles and making. The meaning of russias campaign in syria the belfer center for. As of late 2016, this lack of focus on russian activity in the broader middle east had left the important question of moscows regional strategy and. On september 30, 2015, russia officially joined the fight in syria with a series of airstrikes.
Israel has five main objectives in the syrian conflict. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what obama does. Russian warplanes took off from the hmeymim airbase in syria on march 16, flying back to their permanent bases in russia as moscow withdraws forces from the wartorn region. The intervention in syria demonstrated the traditional holistic russian approach, as the campaign has promoted several connected goals. Russias strategic interest in syria themarketswork. While the literature on russia in the middle east is extensive, recent analysis has understandably focused on syria, giving less attention to moscows relations with other countries in the region. Russia appears to have deployed about 70 aircraft of a variety of types and more than 4,000 support personnel to protect and maintain the aircraft.
A sustainable strategy to contain is and undermine its recruitment efforts. Russia insists the weapons it sells to syria cannot be used against peaceful civilians. In the arab east, syria, probably one of the most independent countries from the west, has had close and wellestablished relations with moscow for a long time. Think of syria as a proxy war two powerful nations unwilling to risk the massive destruction that would accompany a direct conflict. Most parties involved in the war in syria receive various types of support from foreign countries and entities based outside syria. Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Russia and iran, the two main military allies and enablers of the syrian. An analysis of american and russian national interests in syria. Despite official washingtons annoyance, the russian involvement in syria could work in favor of u. Israel also remains under threat of crossborder attacks, in particular. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis 3 overview in springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel international talks, aimed at keeping president bashar alassad or at least elements of his regime in place as part of a political transition in syria. These realities would mean supporting the russian turkish ceasefire effort as a means of easing refugee outflows and restraining iranian gains, even if a syrian political solution is far off.
European journal of economic and political studies. Mar 18, 2016 russian warplanes took off from the hmeymim airbase in syria on march 16, flying back to their permanent bases in russia as moscow withdraws forces from the wartorn region. Thomas points to optimistic versus pessimistic russian views on how the recent us election will impact us policy in syria. The relative success of russias syria oper ation makes. Sep 07, 20 regime change in syria is still at least officially u. According to the stockholm international peace research institute sipri, russian arms sales to syria totalled 4. Specifically, it aimed to defend and save an embattled ally and secure russian militarypolitical assets in syria. Russias policy on syria after the start of military engagement. Russian involvement in the syrian civil war syria syria. Tartous is a russian naval base but also has significant pipeline access and infrastructure. Russian president vladimir putin announced on march 14 that he would begin withdrawing his main forces from syria. Nov 18, 2015 many observers have argued that the russian military operation in syria is a bold challenge to the united states in the region.
Both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these interests overlap in part, but not completely both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. Arms exports have also been a key russian business interest closely tied to the syrian government. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what. Sep, 2016 arms exports have also been a key russian business interest closely tied to the syrian government. The strategic interests at play in us debate over syria al. Though its foreign policy approach of nonintervention and nonuse of military force stands largely in opposition to 2s third pillar, hina has nevertheless made uncharacteristic diplomatic contributions to syria, appointing a special envoy to the crisis and. The strategic interests at play in us debate over syria. Chaos and fragmentation within syria are creating wider openings for interests hostile to the u. This book is the first to offer a comprehensive survey of moscows foreign policy interests in syria. Obamas administration abandoned mubarak, a longtime american ally, yet the kremlin.
Russia has long supported syria and the assad regime and has assisted assad politically, financially and with military aid since the beginning of the syrian conflict. An analytical framework interests, but elsewhere their impact has been symbolic rather than substantive. The us could begin by limiting the damage of the syrian conflict to its wider regional stability and counterterrorism goals. Aug 23, 20 obamas references to the core national interests that would be threatened by the use or spread of chemical weapons in the middle east could be a sign that a decision on us action in syria is. Jun 29, 2012 russia insists the weapons it sells to syria cannot be used against peaceful civilians. As syria is the nexus of russias campaign to expand its regional. Russian diplomatic effortswith the possible exceptions of some oilproducing countries, most importantly saudi arabia. Nonetheless, the arrival of increasing amounts of russian assistance to the syrian regime may eventually neutralize the immediate threat posed to the regime heartland and place jabhat al. The us russian competition in syria at log istic support level russia has played an important role in supporting the syrian regime in confronting the armed opposition. Expanding russian port facilities in the naval base at tartus and expanding an airfield south of latakia into an air base. Syrias location bordering the mediterranean, israel, lebanon, turkey, jordan, and iraq makes it too important to lose. Russian aircraft began bombing missions against opponents of the assad regime at the end of september 2015. Another reason for putin to support assad involves developments within russia. Many in the western policy community were sur prised by russia s actions.
Syria is russias most important foothold in the region and a key to putins calculus. In pursuit of maintaining their interests in syria, moscow and tehran have adopted different. According to reliable press reports, president vladimir putin has already made major changes in the russian military role in syria. Russia and syria oxford academic journals oxford university press. Obamas references to the core national interests that would be threatened by the use or spread of chemical weapons in the middle east could be a sign that a decision on us action in syria is. But you wouldnt know that from recent commentary, like stephen walts piece touting vladimir putin as a master strategist and barack obama as bumbler. Following the october revolution 1917, and the creation of the soviet union 1922, the russian presence in syria came to an end, which continued during the french mandate period 1923. Though its foreign policy approach of nonintervention and nonuse of military force stands largely in opposition to 2s third pillar, hina has nevertheless made uncharacteristic diplomatic contributions to syria. To print a pdf, you must first download the file and open it in a pdf viewer. Putin is challenging western countries that uphold a security system russia sees as serving predominantly and dis proportionately the interests of the u. First, it needs to determine the nature of russias objectives in syria and ukraine. In springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for. Russian activity should not be conflated with russian success. It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russia s only remaining middle east base and where many dual russiansyrian citizens live.
Turkey, a nato ally, is facing terrorism and a refugee crisis. It was not a major deployment, but it shifted the situation on the ground rapidly. Despite its visible limitations, watching footage from russian drones of relatively accurate nighttime airstrikes in syria is almost science fiction compared to what the russian air force was capable of as recently as 2008. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter. Foreign involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Realist political thought is said to focus on national interests. Apr 12, 2017 russia holds the strategic port of tartous in syria.
In 2009, qatar was rebuffed by syria for their pipeline proposal that would have allowed qatar access to the eu market. These statements indicate that that russian leaders believe that they can live with a syria without assad as long as 1 his successors is chosen through negotiations, in which russia has a say, followed by elections rather than through use of force and 2 the new leadership honors russias interests. Russian and american interests in syria nuclear diner. Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syrias coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria. Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war. For further russian comments on syria and russian initiatives since 30 september 2015 not part of this military operation, see. Mar 22, 2016 from the start of russian military involvement in syria until january 11, 2016, according to ihs janes 360, the amount of territory under the syrian governments control grew by just 1. Russias policy on syria after the start of military. Nonetheless, the arrival of increasing amounts of russian assistance to the syrian regime may eventually neutralize the immediate threat posed to the regime heartland and place jabhat alnusra on the defensive. Syria is a debut of sorts for russias tactical aviation. One type of rus sian aircraft deployed to syria, the su30is capable of engaging other aircraft in addition to ground targets.
Of course, russias interests in syria predate even the soviet union. Many observers have argued that the russian military operation in syria is a bold challenge to the united states in the region. The bbcs steve rosenberg in moscow reports on russias thinking on this issue. Visions is an electronic collection dedicated to russia and the. The author considers the kremlins diplomacy on syria within the broader system of russian foreign policy in the middle east. In russia itself, the gesture has invited further radicalization, while raising concerns among the countrys own muslims, the vast majority of whom are peaceful. The largescale civilian killings perpetrated by assads regime have only reinforced the importance of. Projecting russian military power can be a balm to a restive populace, one of the reasons behind russias syrian moves.
Results of the reset in usrussian relations, russie. According to the stockholm international peace research institute, russia accounted for 78 percent of syria s weapons purchases between 2007 and 2012. In 1893, the russian empire established a consular office in damascus, then a part of ottoman syria. In this regard, russias decision to stand with its ally is. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move in. Syria, indicating highlevel c2 linkages across the russian military.
Core us interests now at stake in syria, obama says. Oct, 2015 an analysis of american and russian national interests in syria. In developing this argument, the article will first examine russia s view on the conflict in syria and the desirable ways of its resolution. In 2011, syria accepted iraqs proposal for a pipeline to the eu market. These realities would mean supporting the russianturkish ceasefire effort as a means of easing refugee outflows and restraining iranian gains, even if a syrian political solution is far off. The syrian civil war has become a magnet for both terrorists and u. The president has never formally revoked the goal he declared on aug. For many months, russia kept the name of the field commander in syria secret and did not even acknowledge it had a deployed. Oct 18, 2015 syria is a debut of sorts for russias tactical aviation. Sep 05, 20 the four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what obama does.
Document summary the journalist informer reports russias continued interest in kurdish actions in syria, provides information on recent kurdish activity. Through military intervention and diplomatic maneuvering, russian president vladimir putin has made his country into one of the major players in the syrian conflict. Understanding russias intervention in syria rand corporation. Russias many interests in syria the washington institute. No one can yet estimate how many more forces and weapons russia will provide, but so far putins major actions include. Israel also remains under threat of crossborder attacks, in particular as hezbollah plays a greater role in the fighting. Israel seeks to minimize iranian and russian influence in syria, block the transfer of advanced weapons to hezbollah, prevent syria from posing a credible military threat to israel or permitting iran to do so, undermine the legitimacy of syria s claims to the golan heights, and prevent sunni militants from establishing infrastructure or. The usrussian competition in syria at log istic support level russia has played an important role in supporting the syrian regime in confronting the armed opposition. The russian orthodox church has close ties to its sister syrian orthodox church. The historical background illustrates that russian. Foreign involvement in the syrian civil war refers to political, military and operational support to parties involved in the ongoing conflict in syria that began in march 2011, as well as active foreign involvement. How and why russia is fixing syrias devastated economy gri. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis. Russia holds the strategic port of tartous in syria.
Syria has long been a consumer of russian weaponry, and the arms trade only intensified after assad and putin came to power in 2000. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move. Israel and russia have maintained a steady dialogue as the crisis has progressed in syria, partly to ensure that russian. Despite its visible limitations, watching footage from russian drones of relatively accurate nighttime airstrikes in syria is almost science fiction compared to what the russian air force was. Download the brief the issue two eastern mediterranean countriessyria and turkeypresent some of the most vexing problems for u. How to salvage us interests in syria fair observer. Weiss and nicole ng for your convenience, this document contains hyperlinked source notes indicated by this teal colored text. Or edward luttwaks paen to putins strategic brilliance. A russian cruiser, destroyer, and supply ship visited venezuela. Ministry as stating that 50 russian aircraft and 2,000 marines had been deployed to syria. On 1 october 2015, the syrian ambassador to russia, riyad haddad, stated that the russian air force is acting in full coordination with the syrian army. Syria, turkey, and the eastern mediterranean center for.